Unless the economy turns around in a big way I think Barack Obama is going to have a very tough time being re-elected in 2012.
Even with all of the capitulating the President has done to try to win favor with White Americans in the middle of the country he's still not too popular with them. And all that capitulating has angered the most liberal groups in the Democratic party. And on top of that Obama has turned off at least a few percentage points of African American voters with his fear of racial issues or mishandling of them.
So how will Obama right his political ship in 2012?
Well there are more than a few people who are calling on him to or predicting that he will drop Vice-President what's-his-name and replace him with Hillary "I was shot at by snipers" Clinton as his running mate.
And those people do have a point that Clinton more than likely will bring with her lots of votes that Obama may have trouble getting without her. White women come to mind. And remember that Hillary won Texas and Ohio in the Democratic Primary. Both Texas and Ohio are going to be a battlefield in the general election in 2012 so having some help there wouldn't hurt Obama.
But would Hillary Clinton as a VP running mate hurt Obama as well? We all know that the Republicans love to hate Hilary. So they would have a field day. But, if their attention is on Hillary that might give Obama a break from all of the attacks. Plus since we all know that Obama will not defend himself on anything remotely racial it might help to have an attack dog like Hillary in the fold.
On the other hand more than a few African American voters were turned off by the Clintons during the last primary season. There was a lot of racial baiting coming from the Clintons. And I don't know if enough time has passed for those wounds to have healed.
I don't think anyone believes that Vice-President Biden has a chance in heck of winning the Presidency in 2016. So he'll be a liability to the Party if he remains on the ticket. Clinton would actually have a chance at winning the Presidency in 2016 so that is another plus in her column.
Oh and one more thing; Bill Clinton. He's kind of a wild card in this. He is a great fund-raiser and campaigner. But he can get out-of-pocket pretty quick. So he might be a problem in a long campaign season, as the 2012 campaign is likely to be.
And there may be another wild card in the 2012 Presidential election, that's New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. His candidacy might really hurt Obama. I know that I would consider voting for Bloomberg. I don't think he'd be afraid to address issues important to African Americans.
But Obama with Clinton might help him overcome a Bloomberg threat.
So, Obama/ Clinton in 2012? What do you think?
10 comments:
Interesting thought! He just might have to do it Val!!!
Interesting thoughts Val!
"Vice-President What's-his-name"
Lol!
Your post is more real then just a thought,as for Black folk remembering,well most americans including us have a memory of a nat.
Wouldn't be too surprised if this scenario becomes the reality. VP is kind of a thankless gig, tho. Your main function seems to be attending the funerals for world leaders.
One.
@Desertflower
He might, especially if he wants to win.
@Jason
Except for a few gaffs Biden is pretty invisible these days. Lol
@BigMac
You're right about us having short memories. But there are going to be plenty of people reminding the voters what Obama didn't do in this term.
@Lin
It is a thankless job unless the VP has aspirations to be President.
Val,
Thanks for visiting my blog and for your encouraging comment.
I'm a Black man and was solidly in Hillary's corner until she started trying to color-arouse the electorate against Obama. Then it became a matter of principle for me that I simply could not and would not help anyone to win by color-arousing the electorate against a Black candidate.
I sent a message to the 400-member Blacks for Hillary group that I had started at Facebook and I told everyone that I regretted having to dump Hillary, but I could no longer support her and would have to support Obama.
I always thought that because both Hillary and Obama were strong, they'd be even stronger together in the effort to end the 43-term white male monopoly of the presidency.
I think what you're proposing might work if Obama got deeply down into his post-partisan-like campaigning while Hillary played the attack dog off the chain. It might even be funny as well as politically successful.
The problem is this: The voters whose faith Obama is losing are Independents and some women. I think I remember seeing polls saying that white men went more for McCain.
I am not sure that Hillary can help Obama to win the votes of semi-conservative white men, suburban housewives and right-leaners who went for Obama because McCain showed himself to be a brain-dead idiot.
Obama has Hillary's voters locked up. Many of the whites who voted for Hillary against Obama in the Democratic primary would have switched party allegiance and voted Republican in the general election.
If Hillary teams up with Obama and defends him from color-aroused crap, then Blacks (like me) will forgive her overnight.
Hillary would help bring out voters who might have stayed home if only Obama and Biden were on the ticket. The problem is Hillary would bring out every single Republican in the nation and many Independents AGAINST Obama.
So, where does all of that leave us?
I think Hillary could run for the Democratic nomination and maybe get it in 2016 even if she doesn't switch off with Biden in 2012. Depending on how sick and tired people are of Obama six years from now, she might even be better off running on her own, rather than having to defend Obama's record in 2016.
Wouldn't white men get ticked off if Obama dropped a white man to take on a white woman running mate? What message would that send to white men?
Also, white women don't automatically vote for white woman candidates. If they did, Obama wouldn't be president right now.
@Francis
"If Hillary teams up with Obama and defends him from color-aroused crap, then Blacks (like me) will forgive her overnight."
You may have a point there.
I also think Obama himself has some mending to do with some Black voters over a few things like the Shirley Sherrod situation.
If he does that and then teams with Hillary they might have a fighting chance. That is if Bloomberg doesn't get into the mix. Then there's no telling what may happen.
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